Simulation-based selection from alternative projects used in building construction industry

Abstract

The present paper is devoted to a problem of making decisions under uncertain information about alternative projects of a building construction. The projects are compared by means of several uncertain attributes (characteristics) which are dependent in the stochastic sense. The main attribute is a reliability of each project expressed in terms of probability in the stochastic sense. The main attribute is a reliability of each project expressed in terms of probability non-exceeding a specified construction time. It is shown how to apply the stochastic simulation to estimating the reliability of each alternative project and specifying values of further attributes used to comparison of the projects. It is demonstrated how simulation results can be further applied to multi-attribute decision making. The proposed application of stochastic simulation is illustrated by means of a practical case study which considers a construction of a multi-storey building.