On prognosis of leaps of cardiovascular diseases by variation of hard cosmic radiation

Abstract

A prognostic correlation between had cosmic ray flux (HCRF) near the Earth's surface and sudden leaps in the number of cases of cardiovascular dūisease (CVD) was studied in Vilnius city in 2001-2004. Gamma spectrometers were used to measure HCRF. This physical parameter turned out to be an indirect indicator of geomagnetic field variation. For quantitive assessment of CVD dynamics two empirical criteria for HCRF were proposed: a consistent fall in the HCRF by 200 or more impulses for 4 or more hours per day and the difference (no less than 15 impulses per hour ) between the average number of impulses registered in 2 (subsequent and previous) days. The leap of CVD was analyzed when the number of CVD exceeded the average monthly level by 10 %, 15 % and 20 %. A leap of CVD cases was predicted 1-3 day following a change in the HCRF according to criteria mentioned above. The predictive reliability of an increase in CVD cases within 2-3 days exceded 80 %, and within 1-2 days - 70%. The human factor in CVD increase was taken into consideration. A maximum leap of CVD (over 20 %) was observed on Mondays and Tuesdays and after holidays. This fact makes difficult to define an influence of geomagnetic factor on human organism. The obtained results should be regarded as preliminary.