Theoretical principles of forecasting accident rate in the conflict sections of the cities by the method of potential danger

Kapski, Dzianis; Leonovich, Ivan; Ratkevičiūtė, Kornelija

Use this URL to cite this publication: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14911/143717

Theoretical principles of forecasting accident rate in the conflict sections of the cities by the method of potential danger

Details

Publication Type (CRIS)

Straipsnis Web of Science duomenų bazėje / Article in Web of Science database (S1a)

Publication Type (eLABa)

Straipsnis Web of Science DB / Web of Science DB article (S1)

Author(s)

Author	Affiliation
Kapski, Dzianis	Belarusian National Technical University
Leonovich, Ivan	Belarussian National Technical University
Ratkevičiūtė, Kornelija	Kelių katedra / Department of Roads (0322)

Title

Theoretical principles of forecasting accident rate in the conflict sections of the cities by the method of potential danger

[en]

Dzianis Kapski, Ivan Leonovich, Kornelija Ratkevičiūtė

Title in other language

Teoriniai avaringumo prognozavimo konfliktiniuose gatvių ruožuose pagrindai, taikant potencialaus pavojaus metodą

[lt]

Is part of

The Baltic journal of road and bridge engineering

Published In

Year	Volume	Issue	Start Page	End Page
2007	2	3	133	140

Publisher

Vilnius : Technika

Publisher (trusted)

Technika

Referenced in Database(s)(DBs)

Computers & Applied Sciences Complete (iki 2021 m.)

Central & Eastern European Academic Source (CEEAS)

Science Citation Index Expanded (Web of Science)

INSPEC

Extent

p. 133-140

URI

URI	Access Rights
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14911/143717
straipsnis	Viso teksto dokumentas (atviroji prieiga) / Full Text Document (Open Access)

Cited references

Science / Art Area

Technologijos mokslai / Technological sciences (T)

Field of Science / Art

Transporto inžinerija / Transport engineering (T003)

Keywords (lt)

Keywords (en)

Abstract (lt)

Straipsnyje aprašytas mėginimas pritaikyti katastrofų teoriją eismo situacijos raidos procesui esant konfliktinei situacijai, kuri baigiasi eismo įvykiu. Išnagrinėtas potencialus konflikto pavojus. Panaudoti patys paprasčiausi metodai (elementarios katastrofos), leidžiantys nustatyti pagrindinių kelių eismo parametrų reikšmes. Pasiūlytas metodas suteikė galimybę įvertinti bendrą konfliktinių taškų poveikį, o tai iš esmės padidino prognozavimo adekvatumą.

Abstract (en)

The article describes an attempt to apply a catastrophe theory for the process of road transport situation development into a conflict situation, which, in the result turns to the accident, through the interpretation of a potential danger of the conflict. For this purpose the simplest methods (elementary catastrophes) were used, allowing to estimate the values of the basic parameters of road traffic. The suggested method made it possible to take into consideration the interaction of conflict points in joint location, what has considerably increased the adequacy of forecasting.