CLARA – expert verbal method of determining investment risk in construction

Abstract

Risk management is a systematic process for integrating professional judgments about relevant risk factors, their relative significance and probable adverse conditions and/or events leading to identification of auditable activities. In practical use task of getting expert knowledge in many cases can be formulated like task of classification, because expert intelligence is to sort objects (alternatives, state of object) through classes of decision. For example engineer analyzing breakdown in sophisticated technical system defines possible type of failure. Elements formatting some whole to be classified may have different origin. It can be different physical objects, cases of choice or condition of some object. The paper aims to presents a verbal method of determining investment risk in construction. The problem under consideration is investment assessment depending on the risk level. This article presents a new way to solve the problem - the CLARA expert verbal method.Formally the problem is stated as one of multicriteria classification. A hierarchical approach to considered effectiveness indicators is proposed. The proof of the method effectiveness is presented.