Accidental explosions

Abstract

This paper addresses the problem of assessing damage to structures caused by accidental explosions from the theoretical standpoint of uncertainty modeling and propagation. It is suggested to assess the damage within the framework of a probabilistic risk assessment. A pure (fully) Bayesian approach to risk assessment is applied as a methodological basis for quantifying uncertainties in damage events. Uncertainties are handled on the epistemic level, that is, are related to future observable events and values of observable quantities. It is proposed to propagate epistemic uncertainties by means of simulation-based modeling accidents which involve explosions and possible damage to structures. The proposed approach is capable to yield risk profiles for accidental explosions in terms of “epistemic likelihood-damage" pairs. An example of a reinforced concrete water tower is used to illustrate key aspects of the proposed uncertainty handling.