Modeling of seafarers' age profile influence on their future staff: case of Lithuania

Abstract

Seafarers' age profile is assumed as on the determinative factor which should be taken into consideration during evaluation of future work force supply. The processes of seafarers' wastage and inflow are quite difficult to predict, as they depend on complicated economical and social processes which take place in maritime sector as well as in the whole society. The article presents age profile based predictive model, considering inflow and wastage of seafarers, which helps to evaluate seafarers' staff future changes and determine the number of necessary inflow of young marine officers. In order to achieve stated objective the following research methods were used: literature analysis, questionnaire survey, descriptive statistics and factor analysis, age profile analysis, age profile modeling, forecasting. Case of Lithuanian seafarers was taken for forecasting.