Vartojimo prekių ir paslaugų kainos Lietuvoje ir kitose Europos Sąjungos šalyse

Abstract

In May !sl, 2004 Lithuania became a member of the EU. Membership in the European Monetary Union (EMU) in 2007 is the next goal that will be achieved by changing of the national currency (Litas) to Euro. Therefore Lithuania must fulfil Maastricht Treaty requirements and five most important are: inflation rate, budget deficit, state debt, long term yield rate and stability of exchange rate in regard to Euro. Maastricht Treaty inflation criteria will be calculated by using Harmonised Consumer Price Index (LICIT). For this reason a brief description of this index is presented here. The analysis of inflation in Lithuania is the main purpose of this article. In 1992 hyperinflation process was observed. The economic situation in Lithuania, became much better during 1994 2003. This improvement was mainly caused by changes in monetary policy. Inflation rate became significantly lower and even deflation was registered in 2002. But after joining the EU, puces in Lithuanian started raising. This tendency has remained til! nowadays and can cause some problems meeting Maastricht Treaty inflation criteria. From all the EU countries the lowest inflation is registered in Scandinavia (Finland. Sweden and Denmark) and such situation has lasted for nine months. It is believable that the lowest inflation will remain in these countries and in 2006 their inflation rate will be compared with Lithuania's in order to see if Lithuania fulfils inflation requirement. Mathematical forecasts for HCPI in Lithuania and Scandinavian countries ate made. According to the obtained results the conclusion is such: inflation in our state should stabilize till 2006 and, if the lowest inflation rate remain in Scandinavian countries, Lithuania will fulfil Maastricht Treaty inflation requirements.